Shortly after the second world war, Jean Monnet proposed a common trading bloc for the major western European powers. Monnet persuaded Robert Schuman, then French foreign minister, to back his plan for a common coal and steel community, which was subsequently agreed by six European nations. This was the first move towards European union and helped to make war between the European powers unthinkable. The other crucial benefit, one that was probably not evident at the time, was the emergence of a trading bloc of European states that could eventually match America economically.
Western Europe is the foundation of our modern civilisation. But if you look at the long-term trends it may not be as secure as it seems. Population growth is continuing rapidly in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Global population is expected to grow a further 1.5bn by 2020, and then another 1.5bn by 2050. Moreover, America is changing. The rising influence of Hispanics—who have overtaken African-Americans to become the largest minority group in the country—means America will be a different place in 20 years and may look less towards Europe for its security alliance. In any case, the Iraq war demonstrated how surprisingly weak the US actually is.
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